When the system cannot hold: Designing an antifragile humanitarianism
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21153/thl2025art2260Keywords:
USAID, international aid, system change, Gaza, SudanAbstract
The abrupt suspension of U.S. humanitarian aid in early 2025, in addition to the famines in Gaza and Sudan, exposed the fragility of the international aid system and triggered a sector-wide reckoning. Written from the perspective of a humanitarian practitioner, this paper argues that current structures are brittle: designed for stability and repeatedly failing under volatility. Drawing on twelve years of operational experience, it explores how an ‘antifragile’ humanitarian model could not just withstand, but improve from disruption. Four design principles are proposed: (1) Start where we are—confront power and political realities; (2) Embrace uncertainty—design for volatility, experimentation, and risk-taking; (3) Do less but better—focus on core life-saving outcomes while discarding ineffective practice; and (4) Respect agency—centre the perspectives and leadership of people affected by crisis, guarding against elite capture. Together these principles point towards a shift from generosity-based, donor-driven aid to solidarity-based, self-sustaining systems of response—anchored in local actors, diversified financing, and multiple centres of power.
Downloads
References
ALNAP. (2025). Global Humanitarian Assistance (GHA) report 2025. https://alnap.org/help-library/resources/global-humanitarian-assistance-gha-report-2025-e-report/
ALNAP. (2025, June). Our priorities reveal which humanitarian future we really want: are we ready to be honest about them? https://alnap.org/commentary-multimedia/index/our-priorities-reveal-the-humanitarian-future-we-really-want-are-we-ready-to-be-honest-about-them/
Aven, T. (2015). The concept of antifragility and its implications for the practice of risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 35(3), 476–483. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12279
Axenie, C., Richter, H., & Steuber, V. (2023). Antifragility as a complex system’s response to perturbations, volatility, and time. arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.13991. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.13991
Betts, R. F. (2012). Decolonization: A brief history of the word. In E. Bogaerts & R. Raben (Eds.), Beyond Empire and Nation: The Decolonization of African and Asian societies, 1930s-1970s (pp. 23–38). Brill. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1163/j. ctt1w8h2zm.5
Byrnes, T. (2025, July 12). The hyperprioritized humanitarian system: When saving lives today means sacrificing tomorrow. [LinkedIn post]. Retrieved from https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hyperprioritized-humanitarian-system-when-saving-lives-thomas-byrnes-spyie/
Byrnes, T. (2025, September 19). The UN80 blueprint: a plan to end duplication, or entrench new gatekeepers? https://www. linkedin.com/pulse/un80-blueprint-plan-end-duplication-entrench-new-thomas-byrnes-fwkae
B’tselem. (2025). Our genocide. https://www.btselem.org/publications/202507_our_genocide
CaLP. (2025, June 20). Cash and voucher assistance is ‘life-saving’: We urgently need to make the case. https://www. calpnetwork.org/blog/cash-and-voucher-assistance-is-life-saving-we-urgently-need-to-make-the-case/
Centre for Humanitarian Data. (2022). Assessing the technical feasibility of conflict prediction for anticipatory action. United Nations OCHA. https://centre.humdata.org/assessing-the-technical-feasibility-of-conflict-prediction-for-anticipatory-action/
Chomsky, N. (2001, May 27). Intellectuals and the responsibilities of public life. [Interview]. Retrieved from https://chomsky. info/20010527/
Cohen, S. (2001). States of denial: Knowing about atrocities and suffering. Cambridge, UK: Blackwell Publishers.
Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., ... & Zsoter, E. (2015). Forecast-based financing: An approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15*(4), 895–904.
Democracy Now! (2025, July 21). “Precisely designed mass starvation”: Aid access as weapon in Israel’s war on Gaza, researchers find. Democracy Now! Retrieved from https://www.democracynow.org/2025/7/21/forensic_architecture
Egeland, J., & Msuya, J. (2024, December 24). A simplified and more efficient humanitarian system. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Retrieved from https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/world/simplified-and-more-efficient-humanitarian-system
Fondation Napoléon. (2020, December 4). The battles of Magenta and Solferino, 1859. Retrieved from https://www.napoleon. org/en/history-of-the-two-empires/timelines/the-battles-of-magenta-and-solferino-1859/
Feinstein International Center. (2023, October 2). Do famine declarations really lead to increased funding? Tufts - Feinstein International Center. https://fic.tufts.edu/publication-item/do-famine-declarations-really-lead-to-increased-funding/
Glasman, J. (2020, November 18). The invention of impartiality: The history of a humanitarian principle, from a legal, strategic and algorithmic perspective. MSF Crash. https://msf-crash.org/en/invention-impartiality-history-humanitarian-principle-legal-strategic-and-algorithmic-perspective
Ground Truth Solutions (GTS). (2025, March). What crisis affected communities need from a humanitarian reset - A guide based on two years of conversations with people on the front lines of crisis — Ground Truth Solutions. https://www. groundtruthsolutions.org/library/what-crisis-affected-communities-need-from-a-humanitarian-reset
Harvard Humanitarian Initiative. (2025, June). The future of humanitarian aid: Navigating a politicized and fragmented landscape. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative.
HeiGIT. (2025). AI for humanitarian forecasting: Opportunities and risks. Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology. https://heigit.org
Hilhorst, D., Melis, S., Mena, R., & van Voorst, R. (2021). Accountability in humanitarian action. Refugee Survey Quarterly, 40(4), 363–389. https://doi.org/10.1093/rsq/hdab015
Human Rights Council. (2025). Legal analysis of the conduct of Israel in Gaza pursuant to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. In Conference room paper of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel. https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session60/advance-version/a-hrc-60-crp-3.pdf.
Inter-Agency Standing Committee. (n.d.). The Grand Bargain. https://interagencystandingcommittee.org/grand-bargain
Inter-Agency Standing Committee. (2025). The UN80 initiative: Reforming humanitarian response. https://www.un.org/un80-initiative
International Council of Voluntary Agencies (ICVA). (2025, March). Lives on the line: The human impact of US foreign aid shifts. https://www.icvanetwork.org/uploads/2025/03/Lives-on-the-Line-Final-Report.pdf
ICVA. (2025, July 10). Planning for People, Not Process: NGO Recommendations for a collective, principled and lightened humanitarian planning process - ICVA. https://www.icvanetwork.org/resource/planning-for-people-not-process/
IMPACT Initiatives. (2025). Keeping the Light On in a Time of Crisis: Why evidence still matters in humanitarian response. https://repository.impact-initiatives.org/document/impact/d114cf2d/IMPACT_Keeping-the-light-on_June2025.pdf
IPC Info. GAZA STRIP: Famine confirmed in Gaza Governorate, projected to expand. (2025, August 15). https://www.ipcinfo. org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-134/en/
Keen, D. (2022). Complex emergencies. Polity Press.
Kjærum, M., Okeke, I., & Diallo, A. (2025). Integrating climate, food security, and displacement data for anticipatory action in the Sahel. *Disasters, 49*(3), 621–639.
Lippold, C. (2024, May 22). The echoes of history, the United Nations. [Online article]. LinkedIn. Retrieved from https://www. linkedin.com/pulse/echoes-history-united-nations-carlo-lippold-m1rhe/
McKeown, G. (2014). Essentialism: The disciplined pursuit of less. New York, NY: Crown Business.
NEAR. (2025). Under pressure: How INGOs are responding to the aid funding crisis and what it reveals about the fragility of local commitments. [Policy Brief]. NEAR Network. Retrieved from https://www.near.ngo/s/INGO-Policy-Brief-1.pdf
Nikookar, E. (2021). Gaining from disorder: Making the case for antifragility in P&SCM literature. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 27(3), 100693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pursup.2021.100693 OCHA. (2025a, March 10). The humanitarian reset. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.unocha.org/news/humanitarian-reset-10-march-2025
OCHA. (2025b, June 10). A hyper-prioritized Global Humanitarian Overview 2025: The cruel math of aid cuts. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Retrieved from https://humanitarianaction.info/document/hyper-prioritized-global-humanitarian-overview-2025-cruel-math-aid-cuts
OHCHR. (2023). UN experts urge prevention of genocide in Gaza. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. (2025, June). Cuts in official development assistance: OECD projections for 2025 and the near term (Policy Brief).
Polo, Laurence Olanrewaju Sholola. (2025.) View of Colonial Financial Power: The hidden architecture of a failed promise. Centre for Humanitarian Leadership. https://ojs.deakin.edu.au/index.php/thl/article/view/2206/1790
PreventionWeb. (2025). AI and disaster risk reduction: Lessons for anticipatory action. UNDRR. https://www.preventionweb. net
Reuters. (2025, August). UN report finds United Nations reports are not widely read. https://www.reuters.com/world/un-report-finds-united-nations-reports-are-not-widely-read-2025-08-01/
Roy, A. (2016). Things that cannot be said: The dismantling of the world as we know it. Livewire https://livewire.thewire.in/livewire/arundhati-roy-on-things-that-can-and-cannot-be-said-the-dismantling-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/
Scarpino, S. V., & Petri, G. (2019). On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks. *Nature Communications, 10*, 898.
Sharpe, M. (2024, April 1). It’s all relative: The origins, legal character and normative content of the humanitarian principles. International Review of the Red Cross. Retrieved from https://international-review.icrc.org/articles/its-all-relative-the-origins-legal-character-and-normative-content-of-the-humanitarian-principles-925
Silver, N. (2016, April 13). Antifragile book review. *Nik Silver blog*. https://niksilver.com/2016/04/13/antifragile-book-review/
Slim, H. (2025, August 28). Humanitarian resets past and present: Where have we come from and where shall we go? *LSE Blogs*. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/activism-influence-change/2025/08/28/humanitarian-resets-past-and-present-where-have-we-come-from-and-where-shall-we-go/
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder. New York, NY: Random House.
Táíwò, O. O. (2022). Elite Capture: How the Powerful Took Over Identity Politics (and Everything Else).
The Guardian. (2012, November 21). Antifragile: How to live in a world we don’t understand – review. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2012/nov/21/antifragile-how-to-live-nassim-nicholas-taleb-review
UN. (2025, September). UN80 Initiative: Shifting Paradigms: United to Deliver. https://www.un.org/un80-initiative/sites/default/files/2025-09/UN80_WS3-1_250918_1540.pdf
UN. (2025, March). UN80 Initiative. https://www.un.org/un80-initiative/en
UNEP. (2024, September). AI has an environmental problem. Here’s what the world can do about that. https://www.unep. org/news-and-stories/story/ai-has-environmental-problem-heres-what-world-can-do-about
WFP. (2020). Anticipatory action: Cash-based responses to climate risk. World Food Programme. https://www.wfp.org
von der Maase, F. (2025). Deep learning for conflict prediction at the subnational level. *Journal of Peace Research, 62*(4), 511–529.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
How to Cite
